Analytical overview of the markets

What happened yesterday

The BIST100, which started yesterday, has moved flat across the session and completed the day at 1.085, up 0.61% with the buying being received at the end of the session. The yield of Turkey's two-year bonds increased by 7 basis points from the previous closing level of 13.28%, and the yield of the 36-year bonds decreased by 10 basis points compared to the previous closing level and decreased to 13.62%. The interest rate on the 10-year US bond is traded at 0.680%. Yesterday, while the US dollar pair traded against the Turkish lira in the 7.32-7 range
38, EUR / TL traded in the range 8.74-8.85. Turkey's debt repayment swap rates are denominated in dollars for a 5-year term, at 516.8.

While US stocks kicked off the session with a mixed start, the S & P500 and Nasdaq indices closed at a record high, supported by the ISM manufacturing index that reached a 20-month high. In conclusion, the Dow Jones index rose 0.76% to 28.646 points, the S & P500 index rose 0.75% to 3.527 points, and the Nasdaq index rose 1.39% to 11.940 points, to close the session. . European bourses ended the session mixed with weak economic data.

The ISO manufacturing sector PMI fell to 54.3 in August, down 2.6 points (4.6%) compared to the previous month. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate reached 73.3% in August, an increase of 2.6 points over the previous month.

According to ITO data, retail prices increased by 0.59% and wholesale prices by 0.84% ​​in Istanbul in August compared to the previous month.

In the US, PMI data for the manufacturing sector decreased from 53.6 to 53.1 in August. (Outlook: 53.6) The ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 54.2 to 56.0 in August. (Expect: 54.4) The index thus reached its highest level of 20 months. Construction expenses increased 0.1% in July.

Consumer prices in the euro area decreased by 0.2% in August compared to the same period last year. Thus, inflation turned negative for the first time in 4 years at -0.2% year-on-year. The PMI data for the manufacturing sector was 51.7 in line with expectations. The unemployment rate was recorded at 7.9%.

Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was achieved at 6.4%, in line with expectations. The BME manufacturing PMI data was achieved as 52.0, below expectations of 53.0. The Brandenburg CPI was -0.5% month over year and -0.4% year over year.

The PMI data for the UK manufacturing sector was 55.2. The data, which was 55.3 the previous month, showed a limited decline in August.

What do we expect today ...

Asian stock markets are following a mixed path as the new day begins. Dow Jones futures rose 0.28%. In the morning hours, the dollar / Turkish lira is trading at 7.37, the euro / Turkish lira, 8.77, the equivalent of the euro / dollar, 1.19. The dollar index is trading at 92.39, and Brent oil is traded at $ 46.01 a barrel. An ounce of gold was trading at 1.963 USD and a gram 465.05 pounds.

Today, while the TCMB Investors Meeting is highlighting domestically, retail sales in Germany, PPI in the Eurozone, ADP employment in the US private sector, factory orders, durable goods orders, and DOE oil inventories are taking the lead.

What do we expect in the long term ...

With the current F / C multiplier of 9.19, BIST100 is discounted 2.0% compared to the 5-year average of 9.4. Turkey witnessed the lowest levels in reducing the increasing market fluctuations in 2018 and 2019 in the Istanbul Private Stock Exchange recently, despite setting a new record by achieving a major recovery in parallel with the Corona virus and the global due to the movements in the oil price index since 2017. Although there is a discount at the current multiplier, the uncertainties are growing in the coming period, which may increase the downside risks for BIST.

The Central Bank of Tunisia, which lowered its policy rate to 12.00% by reducing its policy rate by 1,200 basis points in the second half of 2019, 75 at the first meeting of 2020 held on January 163, 50 on February 19, two days earlier From the planned meeting and held on March 17th. It lowered the weekly repurchase rate to 8.25% by a total reduction of 375 basis points by cutting 100 basis points on April 22 and 50 basis points on May 21. The weekly repo rate was unchanged at the June 25, July 23 and August 20 meetings, leaving the current level at 8.25%.

According to the TCMB Forecast Poll, the CPI rose 0.58% in July. It is expected to increase by 0.68% in August, 0.92% in September, 10.82% at the end of 2020 and 9.70% in 12 months. Again, in the same survey, it is expected that USD / TL will be 7.34 at the end of 2020 and 7.68 after 12 months. The current account deficit is expected to reach $ 17.3 billion by the end of 2020 and $ 20.7 billion in 2021. GDP growth is projected to be -1.6% and 4.3% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The central bank's weekly repurchase rate is expected to remain at 8.43% at the end of the current month, dropping to 9.06% after 3 months, to 9.20% after 6 months and to 9.10% after 12 months. The 10-year bond yield, which is currently 13.62%, is expected to stabilize at 12.72% after 12 months.

Hibya Haber Ajansı