Analytical overview of the markets

What happened yesterday ...

  What happened yesterday ...

  The BIST100 index, which started the first trading day of the week at 1,090 points, up 0.37% with a positive disengagement from global markets, ended the day with an increase of 0.97 points on the day.  The yield of Turkey's two-year bonds remained steady at 13.24%, unchanged compared to the previous close, and the yield on the 10-year bonds rose by 1 basis point to the level of 13.89%.  After a horizontal movement in the first half of the day, the USD / TRY renewed its peak of over 7.46 in the afternoon.  EUR / TL was in the range 8.76-8.83.  Turkey's debt repayment swap rates that are denominated in dollars for a 5-year period are traded at 507.0.

  The Treasury and Finance announced cashbacks for August.  Accordingly, the cash revenues of the treasury amounted to 112 billion and 241 million pounds, and cash expenditures amounted to 81 billion and 859 million pounds last month.  Non-interest expenditures amounted to TL 70 billion 674 million, and interest payments were TL 11 billion and 186 million.  The primary balance gave a surplus of 41 billion and 567 million liras.  The cash balance of the Treasury recorded a surplus of 30.4 billion TL in August.

  The US stock market was closed yesterday due to "Labor Day".  At the close of the session on Friday, the Dow Jones index fell 0.56% to 28.133 points, the S & P500 index fell 0.81% to 3,427 points, and the Nasdaq index fell 1.27% to 11,313 points.  The S & P500 index declined by 0.80% to 3.334 points, and the Nasdaq index declined by 1.69% to 10.783 points, by 0.38% to 27.687 points.  On the other hand, European stock markets completed the session on a positive basis.
  China's exports continued to recover in August, increasing to 11.6%, while imports decreased by 0.5%.  Thus, China's trade surplus decreased to $ 58.9 billion in August.

  While industrial production in Germany increased by 1.2% in July compared to the previous month, it decreased by 10% annually.


  What do we expect today ...

  As the new day begins, Asian stock markets are watching with buyers.  In the US, the Dow Jones Index futures contract is increasing 1.07%.  The dollar / Turkish lira is traded at 7.4605, and the euro / Turkish lira is traded at 8,821.  The dollar index, which maintains its horizontal movement, is at 93.16, while the EUR / USD parity is at 1.1814.  The price of Brent oil, which generally shows a downward trend, is $ 41.95 per barrel.  An ounce of gold is $ 1.934 in the early hours of the new trading day, while the price of an ounce is fixed, but the weak appearance of the Turkish lira assets supports the price of a gram of gold, which is at the level of 464 Turkish lira.


  Although there is no significant data flow in the country today, the foreign trade balance, Germany's current account balance and Eurozone GDP data will be followed.

  What do we expect in the long term ...

  Current BIST100 for an adult F / C multiplier is close to the 5-year average of an adult.  Turkey witnessed the lowest levels in limiting the increasing market fluctuations in the years and 2019 in the Istanbul Private Stock Exchange recently, despite setting a new record by achieving a major recovery in parallel with the Corona virus and the global due to movements in the oil price index.  Although there is no premium in the current multiplier, increased uncertainty for the upcoming period may increase the downside risks of BIST.


  The Central Bank of Tunisia, which lowered its policy rate to 12.00% by reducing its policy rate by 1,200 basis points in the second half of 2019, 75 at the first meeting of 2020 held on January 16, 50 on February 19, two days earlier  From the planned meeting and held on March 17th.  It lowered its weekly repurchase rate to 8.25% with a total reduction of 375 basis points by a cut of 100 basis points on April 22 and 50 basis points on May 21.  The weekly repo rate was unchanged at the June 25, July 23 and August 20 meetings, leaving the current level at 8.25%.


  According to the TCMB Forecast Poll, the CPI rose 0.86% in August.  It is expected to increase by 0.92% in September, 10.82% at the end of 2020 and 970% in 12 months.  Again, in the same survey, it is expected that USD / TL will be 7.34 at the end of 2020 and 7.68 after 12 months.  The current account deficit is expected to reach $ 17.3 billion by the end of 2020 and $ 20.7 billion in 2021.  GDP growth is projected to be -1.6% and 4.3% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.  The weekly repo rate of the Turkish Central Bank is expected to remain at 8.43% at the end of the current month, dropping to 9.06% after 3 months, to 9.20% after 6 months and 9.10% after 12 months.  The yield on the 10-year bond, which is currently at 13.89%, is expected to stabilize at 12.72% after 12 months.


  Company news

  Ereğli Demir ve Çelik, İskenderun Demir Çelik (EREGL, ISDMR; Effect of the news: Neutral)

  The subsidiary company of the company İskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.Ş.  (İsdemir) (ISDMR), according to the provisions of the share transfer agreement signed between the company and the Privatization Administration (ÖİB) regarding the transfer of shares to the company, a lawsuit was filed against ÖİB by İsdemir in the Ankara Third Civil Court of First Instance regarding debts  TL.


  Technical checklist

  For the period September 8-15, our technical watchlist includes ASELS, ENJSA, KCHOL, SASA and TTKOM.  The supports and resistances are found in the table on page 3.


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Hibya Haber Ajansı