ICI Turkey export climate index

A second wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe harmed prospects for Turkish manufacturing exporters during November, and outweighed the positive impact of improving growth in the US.

A second wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe harmed prospects for Turkish manufacturing exporters during November, and outweighed the positive impact of improving growth in the US. The Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index is calculated by weighting together national PMI data on output trends from PMI surveys. Weights are derived from statistics on the relative importance of individual trading partners’ contributions to the exports of Turkish manufacturers. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index dropped to 48.9 in November, down from 51.2 in October and signalling a deterioration in demand conditions for exporters for the first time in five months. The worsening export climate largely reflected a downturn in Europe where a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to renewed restrictions. Sharp falls in business activity were recorded in Italy, France, Spain and Greece, with rates of decline accelerating from those seen in the previous month amid the introduction of lockdown measures. The UK dipped into contraction territory midway through the final quarter, seeing a modest reduction in output which ended a four-month sequence of expansion. Bucking the wider European trend, Germany continued to see an improvement in demand conditions. Activity rose for the fifth month running, albeit at the slowest pace in this sequence. While Germany accounts for around 9% of Turkish manufacturing exports and is the largest single market for Turkish goods, its contribution is outweighed by the other European markets which saw a worsening demand climate during November. In contrast to the picture in Europe, the US saw a steep expansion of activity, and one that was the sharpest since

March 2015. Canada also posted a marked increase, with manufacturing production up at a similar pace to that seen in October. The Middle East saw mixed fortunes in November. The largest export destination for manufacturers in the region - the UAE - posted a slight fall in activity, the first in six months. Lebanon also continued to face economic difficulties. On the other hand, growth in Saudi Arabia quickened to a ten-month high, while rises in output were also signalled in Egypt and Qatar. After the US, the strongest increase in output in the latest month was in Taiwan, where growth was the strongest since July 2014

Comment Country rankings 30 40 50 60 Germany (9.2%) UK (6.6%) Italy (5.5%) US (4.8%) France (4.6%) Spain (4.6%) Netherlands (3.2%) UAE (2.1%) Egypt (2.0%) Poland (2.0%) Saudi Arabia (1.9%) Russia (1.8%) Greece (1.1%) Mainland China (0.8%) Qatar (0.7%) Austria (0.7%) Lebanon (0.6%) Czech Republic (0.6%) Canada (0.5%) S Korea (0.5%) Kazakhstan (0.5%) India (0.5%) Hong Kong SAR (0.4%) Singapore (0.4%) Australia (0.4%) Ireland (0.4%) Nigeria (0.4%) Mexico (0.3%) South Africa (0.3%) Brazil (0.3%) Japan (0.2%) Ghana (0.2%) Malaysia (0.2%) Vietnam (0.2%) Thailand (0.2%) Colombia (0.2%) Indonesia (0.1%) Taiwan (0.1%) Kenya (0.1%) Philippines (0.1%) Mozambique (0.1%) Myanmar (0.0%) Uganda (0.0%) Zambia (0.0%) PMI Output Index (ordered by export weight in full-year 2019) sa, ›50= growth since previous month Increasing rate of decline “There were divergent trends across the main export markets for Turkish manufacturers. The COVID-19 pandemic blighted demand conditions across much of Europe, with a second wave of the virus leading to renewed restrictions. On the other hand, the US powered ahead, posting the fastest expansion of all countries covered by the report. Manufacturers will hope that the authorities in Europe can gain control of the virus quickly, enabling a swift reopening of economies to join the US in growth territory.”


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