Turkey: Confidence indices continue to increase

It is seen that the effects of recovery compared to the previous months continue in the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate data for October announced by the Central Bank. (Tera Yatırım)

While RSCI increased by 2.8 points to 108.1 in October; seasonally adjusted RSCI rose by 4 points to 109.7.

 

During this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate was 75.4% with an increase of 0.8 points; seasonally adjusted CUR was at the level of 74.9%.

 

It is observed that the indices, which showed a rapid recovery in the 3Q20 period with the increasing industrial activities during the economic normalization period, continued to increase. With the acceleration in industrial production especially in the 3Q20 period, the pre-pandemic index levels were restored. On the other hand, the risks prevailing for the 4Q20 period in domestic and external demand conditions point to a slowdown in this recovery. In this context, the continuation of the Covid epidemic and tightening of financial conditions are seen as the factors determining the demand conditions. The fact that the Euro Zone economic growth, which is the most fundamental factor in terms of foreign demand, is entering the slowdown zone again with the effect of Covid cases may negatively affect the manufacturing industry outlook. The fact that the latest PMI data points to a slowdown on a global scale and the problematic situation that has led to increased shutdown measures within the framework of the epidemic indicates that the economies will slow down even if there is no total shutdown.

 

 

Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı