Turkey: The budget has a surplus in November after two months of deficit

According to the November budget data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance; The budget balance, which had a deficit of 4.9 billion TRY in October 2020, gave a surplus of 13.4 billion TRY in November 2020.

The budget had a surplus of 7.8 billion TRY in the same period last year. As stated in the Monthly Budget Realization Report, the primary surplus, which was 15.2 billion TRY in November 2019, was 22.9 billion TRY primary surplus in November 2020. Budget revenues increased by 31.8% between November 2019 and November 2020 and reached 109.7 billion TRY, while budget expenditures increased by 27.5% in the same period and reached 96.3 billion TRY. In the same period, tax revenues increased by 35.3% and reached TRY 99.2 billion due to a strong periodic increase (tax effect deferred in March). Budget expenditures excluding interest increased by 27.6% with a 33% increase in current transfers and realized as 86.8 billion TRY.


When we look at the 2020 cumulative data; It was observed that the budget had a deficit of 132.1 billion TRY in the January - November period. It is observed that the budget, which had a deficit of 92.9 billion TRY in the 11-month period of the previous year, displayed a more negative image compared to the previous year. While 2.8 billion TRY primary surplus was made in January - November 2019, 3 billion TRY primary deficit was realized this year. Budget revenues increased by 16.1% between January - November 2019 and January - November 2020 to reach TRY 931.9 billion, while budget expenditures increased by 18.8% in the same period and reached TRY 1 trillion 64 billion. In the same period, the increase in tax revenues was realized as 23% and reached 754.6 billion TRY. Budget expenditures excluding interest increased by 16.9% and reached 934.9 billion TRY.


In November, the increase in tax revenues was supported by the increase in SCT revenues due to the increase in consumption and the payment of the taxes deferred in the March period. At the same time, we see a significant periodic increase in VAT taken from imports. This increase in tax revenues was effective in the budget surplus in November. On the other hand, the support given to the economy in order to mitigate the economic effects of the Covid-19 epidemic causes the budget expenditures to continue to increase. Moreover, domestic demand, which will be limited within the framework of closing measures and tightening policies, may cause a slowdown in SCT and VAT revenues. We see that economic measures will continue within the framework of the government's income support, rent support or assistance to sectors and companies experiencing problems within the framework of epidemic measures. In the New Economy Program announced at the end of September, the budget deficit / GDP ratio was predicted as 4.9% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2021.


Kaynak:Tera Yatrım
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